The question that is coming in many minds around the world after the death of Pope Francis on Monday is who will become the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
The selection process will begin when all cardinals under 80 who are eligible to participate are summoned to Rome to prepare for the secret conclave within the Sistine Chapel to choose the next pontiff. This meeting generally begins between 15 and 20 days after the death of the Pope.
A woman presents respect in front of a portrait of the late Pope Francis outside the parish of Caacupe in Buenos Aires, on April 21, 2025.
Juan Mabromata/AFP through Getty Images
While the internal operation of the conclave and how the group finally decides that a new Pontiff remains a secret, experts are still evaluating who could be the probable main ones for the papacy.
Francis, who was a progressive leader of the Church, had designated approximately 80% of the cardinals who are eligible to vote for the new Pope, according to thousands Patters, historian of the Catholic Church of the University of Oxford. But, Patten told ABC News that it does not mean that the next pontiff will directly reflect the same values as Francis.
“It is a mistake to think about [Francis’ cardinals] as a homogeneous block. Not everyone will have shared Francis’s opinions, “Patten told ABC News.” Some of them will have been open about it. He appointed them because they represented important areas or factions in the church that thought it should be represented. Others possibly were not in harmony with all Francis’s opinions, but remained silent about it. Now it does not exist, we will see where your real positions are. “
Any baptized Catholic man is eligible to occupy Francis’s place, but Pattena said that Pietro Parolin, the secretary of state of the cardinal, and Luis Tagle, the archbishop of Manila in the Philippines, are the main main runners.
The Secretary of State of the Vatican, Cardinal Pietro Parolin smiles, since he is welcome by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for a meeting at the Bellevue Palace in Berlin, Germany, on June 29, 2021.
Michael Sohn/AP
Pietro Parolin
Parolin, which “seems a lot on paper as if it should be the obvious continuity candidate,” has been the Secretary of State since August 2013 and is a very experienced Vatican diplomat, “Petterten said.
“It has all the correct credentials. The question is whether most cardinals want that or not,” Patters said.
Cristina Traina, a professor of religious studies at the University of Fordham in New York, said that Parolin is someone who is “extraordinarily versed in the internal functioning of the Vatican, but that could count against him if they are interested in continuing reforms of the Vatican.”
Luis Tagle
A similar candidate in “Charism and emphasis on the pastoral mission” to Francis is Tagle, who was appointed by Pope Benedict as Manila’s archbishop in 2011, said Pattenn.
Cardinal Luis Tagle smiles while listening to reporters’ questions during a press conference on the Synod at the Vatican, on October 23, 2018.
Alessandra Tarantino/AP
“His drawback is that he can be a bit young, he is only 67 years old,” said Patten. “It is not clear that you have the correct type of administrative experience. If the cardinals are looking for someone to establish the ship and make sure that the Vatican remains in order, maybe they want someone else.”
Although Francis “raised many cardinals with generally progressive views” and “it would be quite automatic to choose one of theirs, someone in the image of Francis,” Patten said that there are still conservative candidates, including Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, Cardinal of Ghana, Peter Turkson and Cardinal Guineano Robert Sarah.
Cardinal Hungarian Peter Erdo is interviewed by Associated Press, in Budapest, April 20, 2023.
Denes erdos/ap
Moderate European: Matteo Zuppi, Jean-Marc Aveline, Mario Grech
If the “most obvious leaders do not have a majority attraction” during the selection process, Pattern said that moderate Europeans, including the archbishop of Bologna Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Marseille Jean-Marc Aveline and the archbishop of Malta Mario Grech, could also potentially between the conclusion.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Adoration and the Discipline of the Sacraments, arrives at the presentation of Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke Divine Love Flesh, in Rome, in Rome, October 14, 2015.
Andrew Medichini/AP
Regardless of who the successor is, Traza told ABC News that the new papacy will vary from Francis, since not many candidates have their position of being pastorally progressive but theologically conservative.
Canadian cardinal Marc Ouellet attends a mass within the Basilica of San Pedro, in the Vatican, March 12, 2013.
Andrew Medichini/AP
Pope Francis Progressives: Marc Oulett, Willem Eijk
The only two that Traina said that they resemble the Francis approach would be Cardinal Canadian Marc Oueelett or Dutch Cardinal Willem Eijk.
“Successors have different skills to their predecessors, and that is not because people reject predecessor skills,” Traina said. “It would not be surprising that there is a change, the question is, what direction?”
ABC News Phoebe Natanson contributed to this report.
